The Southern Fans' College Football Poll: August 2009

Monday, August 31, 2009

No. 8 LSU Tigers



LSU fans expect (another) big season from Miles

In what is always a fun debate, try to name the currently-employed coach that has won a national championship but is on a hot-seat.

While this is always relative, the answer is a little more difficult to come up with then in year's past. Just a few seasons ago, the answer would've been Lloyd Carr, who won a pre-BCS AP National Title in 1997 (splitting it with Nebraska). Prior to that, Larry Coker would have topped the list, after he won a national title in his debut season at Miami. Both of these coaches have been run out though, leaving the question more difficult.

And national titles generally buy a coach a good bit of time to work through rough patches; further, some coaches have become such iconic figures for their universities (e.g. Florida State's Bobby Bowden and Penn State's Joe Paterno), that they seem to be immune from even the mention. However, one sure fire way to get to the top of the list is to win a national title with another coach's players, which leads us to...

Les Miles. Less than two seasons removed from a national title, Miles certainly isn't on a hot seat, but with the title coming with mostly Nick Saban's recruits, how much credit do Tiger fans give Miles for bringing home their second title this decade? Further, being the only BCS champion with two losses (and the first consensus champion to have two defeats since 1960) takes a little more shine off of Miles' image.

But most importantly is last season's 8-5 record, which makes fans wonder whether Miles is really a national title coach or just a Larry Coker-type babysitter who was able to lead a pre-assembled team through the season.

That worry will be answered in 2009, when Miles enters his fifth season in Baton Rouge. Now, the entire roster is made up of mostly Miles recruits and any success or failure will be on his shoulders. And Miles has toed the line of failure during his tenure - multiple times in 2007 alone, LSU narrowly escaped defeat and lost to two inferior opponents (Arkansas and Kentucky). This season, the Tigers travel in the opening week to play a much improved Washington team, have back-to-back games at Georgia and hosting Florida, travel to Alabama, and end the season with revenge games at Ole Miss and Arkansas.

While all SEC schedules are difficult, LSU needs a defining season to continue it's image as an elite of the elite program. LSU is in one of the best situation's in college football - the lone BCS program in a football rich state (even Ohio State and Penn State have Big East members Cincinnati and Pitt). But Miles is beginning to lose out on Louisiana recruits. And with Alabama and Florida becoming SEC superpower programs, Miles has to show that he can re-build that Saban-recruiting wall around the state. If he doesn't have another breakthrough season in 2009, then there's little chance of continuing to hold in the recruits, and Miles will become the debate's easy answer.

CFN 2009 Preview | ESPN LSU Preview | CBS LSU Preview

Part of a two-week long look into the 2009 Preseason Southern Fans' College Football Poll. New posts released each day, culminating with the No. 1 team on September 2.

College Football Pick'em is Back!

Ok Pollsters, as you already know, I'm restarting our Pick'em challenge. If you didn't get the email I sent out, please email me really quick, Jarad.Wilson@gmail.com . Best of Luck to everyone, and lets try and beat out last year's rocky record, 42-43-1.

Thursday, August 27, 2009

No. 9 OHIO STATE BUCKEYES



Buckeyes hope to erase doubts around the nation

What does Ohio State have to do to get some respect?

While that might sound odd for the Big Ten Goliath, who always seems to be at the top of any poll, Ohio State receives absolutely no respect from fans nationally. The team has not only been the model of consistency under Jim Tressel but has reversed the John Cooper-inspired trend against Michigan. Tressel has gone 83-19 in Columbus, while holding a 7-1 record over the Wolverines. That kind of record against a rival creates volatile reactions and was responsible for the firing of both Michigan and Ohio State's former coaches (Lloyd Carr was 1-6 against Tressel, while OSU's John Cooper was 2-10-1 against UM).

But for someone who's been so successful, Tressel's teams continue to garner loathing from everyone outside of Ohio. Why is this?

1) Strength of the Big Ten - Outside of a good season in 2006 (where the conference might have been the best in the nation), the Big Ten has been primarily the Big Two in the 2000s. Fans can't stand that Ohio State, who does play notable non-conference games, only has to get up for two or three games a season because of the lack of strength within the Big Ten. This season will prove to be much of the same, with Penn State being the only in-conference opponent of note while USC comes to Columbus early in the season. Wins over those two teams would mean an inside track to the BCS, leading fans to agonize over the previous...

2) BCS Bowl losses - Ohio State was on top of the world at the end of 2006. The Buckeyes had run through another undefeated season (their second in six seasons), had continued their dominance over rival Michigan (and knocked the Wolverines from a spot in the BCS Championship Game), and only needed to beat a good, but lucky, Florida team to be the first team to win two BCS Championships. Of course, over the next 13 months, Ohio State would lose two national title games and be labeled with the rep of losing big games, and another BCS Bowl loss to Texas in 2008. While the loss to Florida was inexcusable due basic to a team fattened on their own greatness and trips on the rubber chicken circuit, the Buckeyes were better than the Gators (and would've won 8 of 10 against UF). The championship loss to LSU shouldn't be held against the team, as they'd only have won 2 of 10 against a healthy Tigers team, that was probably the best team in the nation despite the two losses and Les Miles at the helm. And Ohio State pushed Texas to the brink last January when the Longhorns were a bad tie breaker rule or dropped interception away from playing Florida for all the marbles.

And what's the difference between Ohio State and Oklahoma - who has now lost two national title games and received the biggest break ever in 2003? That might have to do with a little...

3) Tressel Ball - Ohio State is sooooo boring to watch, and it all goes back to Tressel, who preaches the three yards and a cloud of dust mantra while adding his own twist: the punt is the best play in football. While the Sooners continue to put up huge points in the Big XII while holding a stout defense, Ohio State continues to win close and win ugly, and Tressel wouldn't have it any other way. While that might change in 2009 and beyond with a playmaker like Tyrel Pryor at QB, Tressel would at least receive some criticism for this style of play if not for the...

4) 2001 National Championship - and no one outside of Columbus remembers Maurice Clarett powering in for the winning touchdown. No, fans around the nation remember the late pass interference penalty that saved the Buckeyes' fourth down incompletion, and gave OSU the chance to beat Miami for their first national title in 40 years. The win validated Tressel's style of play, and since, at the time, OSU was David battling the mega-superpower that was the Hurricanes, everyone was pulling for the Buckeyes, but only because they didn't realize what was about to be unleashed on the nation...

5) Ohio State fans - while Alabama, LSU and Florida fans get a reputation around the SEC for being cocky (especially among rivals and foes), no team's fans have a worse reputation then Ohio State, and that comes from people outside the conference. Texas fans, who generally despise anything Crimson and Cream, were eager to admit that Ohio State fans were worse then their foes to the north. Not to mention the pretentiousness that is The Ohio State, this might be the sole factor that annoys the rest of the nation about Ohio State.

CFN 2009 Preview | ESPN Ohio State Page | CBS Ohio State Page

Part of a two-week long look into the 2009 Preseason Southern Fans' College Football Poll. New posts released each day, culminating with the No. 1 team on September 2.

No. 10 OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS



Gundy, Cowboys try to live up to lofty expectations

Missouri... Kansas... Texas Tech... Hmmm, who else can we choose?

Awww, Oklahoma State - this season's chic pick to unseat Texas and Oklahoma as the unstoppable rulers of the Big XII. Ever since Nebraska and Colorado had their fun in the early part of the decade, the two schools from the South have controlled the conference, leaving fans and the media to speculate on just who could make the conference championship game intriguing.

Last season Texas Tech came up short on a three-way tie breaker, while both Missouri and Kansas had a shot at the national title game in 2007. Now it's the Cowboys, who like Ole Miss and Cal seem to be media darlings entering the 2009 season.

But is Oklahoma State really even good enough to duplicate Texas Tech's 11-1 regular season, much less release the South from the OU/UT strangle-hold for the first time since 1998? While that question probably won't be known for sure until late October, the Cowboys will know from week 1 whether they'll steadily move up the rankings or just be a preseason afterthought. That's because OSU hosts No. 15 Georgia in the first week. A win over the Dawgs would mean a 4-0 start going into the Oct. 10 trip to College Station to face Texas A&M (the 'Boys have powerhouses Houston, Rice and Grambling State for their remainder out-of-conference schedule).

The remainder of the Big XII schedule couldn't play out better for Mike Gundy, who yes, still is a man but now forty-two. The Cowboys have an open date before A&M, host Missouri, another open date (technically at Baylor) before hosting Texas, another open date (technically at Iowa State) before Texas Tech, and then close with hosting Colorado and traveling to Norman.

So there's a high probability that a win over Georgia could mean a 11-0 start for the Boone Pickins-funded Cowboys. But while the OSU offense has been generating buzz for years, the team finally has a defense to make it formidable. If 6-point favorite OSU knocks off UGA, then watch for the Cowboys to actually live up to expectations and displace the Sooners and Longhorns.

CFN 2009 Preview | ESPN Oklahoma St Page | CBS Oklahoma St Page

Part of a two-week long look into the 2009 Preseason Southern Fans' College Football Poll. New posts released each day, culminating with the No. 1 team on September 2.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

No. 11 OLE MISS REBELS



Nutt, Snead have expectations high in Oxford

One of the Cinderella stories of 2008, Ole Miss starts the 2009 season just outside the top 10. But the '08 season started as inconspicuous as most others in Oxford, where Ole Miss has done a large bit of nothing over the past 45 years. The Rebels started 2-2 with narrow losses to academic heavyweights Wake Forest and Vanderbilt, but it was in late September where new coach Houston Nutt and his Rebels made the season-defining statement when they knocked off eventual champion Florida in the Swamp.

And how did Ole Miss respond to the possible program defining win? With losses at home to South Carolina and (a narrow loss) to eventual SEC West champion Alabama. At 3-4 in mid-October, Ole Miss looked to be back to regular form but then ran off six consecutive victories - including wins over Auburn, LSU and Big XII South co-champion Texas Tech - to end the season at 9-4.

And it was those wins that have gotten Ole Miss into the national conscious, and many think the Rebels have a chance to unseat Alabama and LSU to make their first SEC Championship Game ever. Playing almost no one of note out-of-conference, the Rebels' most difficult road game looks to be either South Carolina on Sept. 26 or Auburn on Halloween. Their three toughest games - Alabama, Tennessee and LSU will all have to come to Vaught-Hemingway.

But the major question - outside of whether Jevan Snead is the best QB in the SEC - is if perennial underachiever Ole Miss will be able to play at the same level as it closed last season with the large bulls-eye on its back. Nutt's team won't be able to sneak up on anyone, and if Ole Miss is actually going to make a run at a trip to Atlanta, it will have to earn it.

CFN 2009 Preview | ESPN Ole Miss Page | CBS Ole Miss Page

Part of a two-week long look into the 2009 Preseason Southern Fans' College Football Poll. New posts released each day, culminating with the No. 1 team on September 2.

No. 12 OREGON DUCKS



Ducks look to Kelly to continue Bellotti legacy

Not much is really expected of Chip Kelly this season. He just needs to continue on Mike Bellotti's under-appreciated legacy, where the former coach won 116 games in 14 seasons in Eugene. The Ducks won two conference championships under Bellotti's leadership, and though they haven't been able to pierce through the USC dominance this decade, Oregon has continued to receive national respect.

While Oregon was becoming a national title contender at the end of the last decade, Bellotti's team slowly fell back as USC rose to prominence this decade. Outside of two 10-win seasons in 2005 and 2008, Oregon hasn't finished higher than a tie for fourth since 2003.

Of course injuries and bad luck hindered Oregon's chances to really make a huge splash on the national scene - the Ducks were jipped out of a chance to play for the national title in 2001 and a late season injury to star QB Dennis Dixon in 2007 ended a promising season.

But under Bellotti's watch, opponents began to fear coming to Autzen Stadium, and Oregon was rarely overlooked (albeit, that might be due to wearing some of the most hideous uniforms Nike could design). And it will be up to new coach Chip Kelly to build on the success that Bellotti did have. Of course, getting out of his mentor's shadow will be difficult, as Bellotti is remaining in Eugene to be the athletic director.

In 2009, the Ducks will be the team for all those fans pulling against "BCS Busters." In the first three weeks, Oregon will travel to Boise State and host Utah, with a home game against Purdue sandwiched between. Knocking out the out-of-conference slate by mid-September will allow Oregon to focus on the Pac-10 schedule for the remainder - notably home games against No. 13 Cal, USC, Arizona State and Oregon State. Within the conference, the toughest road game will be at Arizona. The USC game comes after three weeks off (well, technically the Ducks have to travel to Seattle the week before, but no game against Washington has constituted anything but an off week lately).

So the schedule lines up perfectly for a run at dethroning conference heavyweight USC, but the issue will be seeing how Kelly transitions from his offensive coordinator duties to full time head coach, all while attempting to live up to the legendary Bellotti.

CFN 2009 Preview | ESPN Oregon Page | CBS Oregon Page

Part of a two-week long look into the 2009 Preseason Southern Fans' College Football Poll. New posts released each day, culminating with the No. 1 team on September 2.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

No. 13 CALIFORNIA BEARS



Bears hope to finally make Pac-10 statement

Is it time to finally give up on Cal?

That question might sound harsh, but after so many predictions of Jeff Tedford's team finally being able to take the Pac-10, the continuing failure has become deafening. And while the Bears run of six-straight bowl games (longest streak in team history) has coincided with the emergence of a dominant USC team, there's still a point of when Cal will step up and force the nation to stop thinking of the conference as the Pac-1.

This season's schedule is noticeably top-heavy, and the Bears might easily be on the national consciousness or an after thought by the beginning of October. In the opening game, Cal will look to avenge last season's loss at Maryland, where the Bears were coming in 2-0 and just seemed to have forgotten what time kick-off; even a late rally couldn't prevent the upset loss. After a trip to Minnesota, the Bears will have back-to-back season defining games - at Oregon and back home against USC. A win over the Ducks would be huge, but a victory over the Trojans would jump the Bears to the front of the conference race.

And it's the game against USC that has come to highlight the schedule of all Pac-10 teams. Despite some hard fought games over the past decade, Cal has only been able to knock off the Trojans once - during USC's 2003 AP National Championship season. But this might be their best opportunity for a while - Cal's getting the Trojans at home, early in the season, with USC breaking in a new quarterback and perhaps before the Trojans have time to gel. The Bears will be coming off a hard-fought game in Eugene, so they'll have already been tested.

After USC, the Bears have a week off to prepare for their trip to UCLA, close the month at Arizona State and host Oregon State and Arizona in back-to-back weeks in November - all of which would be a fortunate schedule - if the team gets on a roll early. However, a slow start would likely drop California back in the at least from a national perspective.

Final 2008 Ranking: Not Ranked

CFN 2009 Preview | ESPN Cal Page | CBS Cal Page

Part of a two-week long look into the 2009 Preseason Southern Fans' College Football Poll. New posts released each day, culminating with the No. 1 team on September 2.

No. 14 GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS



Jackets looking to build on '08 success

In a Tech season full of exciting moments, including big wins over Boston College, Miami and FSU and narrow defeats to Virginia Tech and Virginia, nothing was more exciting for Jacket fans then the 45-42 shootout victory over rival Georgia in Athens, where GT hadn't won this century.

And it was all thanks to Paul Johnson, whose triple-option offense has given Georgia Tech an identity. A team that should have been going through a transition turned out a 9-3 regular season and into the ACC Coastal co-champs. But after finally topping their in-state rival, Georgia Tech squandered the opportunity to show their arrival with a 38-3 blowout loss to LSU in the Chick-fil-a Bowl in Atlanta.

So now the question is which team will be the one that goes through the 2009 season - the one that persevered over the SEC foe at home, or the one that was dominated by the SEC underdog in Tech's own home town? If GT can play at the same level as it ended the regular season, then the Yellow Jackets will have the opportunity to not only duplicate their success from last season but unseat division favorite Virginia Tech.

The difficulties in stopping the triple option - which some incorrectly believe to be a gimmick offense - lends Tech the ability to even out athletic disparities. The offense has the ability to neutralize aggressive defenses and forces opponents to play more predictable base defenses. Also, as many teams found difficult last season, it's almost impossible to recreate the offense with a scout team.

But of course, if an offensive scheme alone won games than everyone would be instituting it. Johnson has great confidence in his offense and demands a high work ethic from his players (at least until bowl season rolls around). Still, with an ever improving ACC, Tech won't be able to sneak up on opponents this season. The Jackets draw Florida State and Wake Forest out of the Atlantic; their biggest games are probably on the road at Florida State and Miami; and the Jackets appear to be petitioning the SEC for re-admittance, with non-conference games against three SEC opponents. Any Tech wins this season will truly be earned.

Final 2008 Ranking: Not Ranked

CFN 2009 Preview | ESPN Georgia Tech Page | CBS Georgia Tech Page

Part of a two-week long look into the 2009 Preseason Southern Fans' College Football Poll. New posts released each day, culminating with the No. 1 team on September 2.

Monday, August 24, 2009

No. 15 GEORGIA BULLDOGS



Expectations in Athens remain despite losing stars

One year after topping the preseason poll, Georgia enters this season at No. 15. The Bulldogs, having to replace the NFL's No. 1 overall draft pick Matthew Stafford and all-everything running back Knowshon Moreno, will open 2009 much less heralded then when they started 2008. That might be a good thing, as UGA won't have the huge target on their back like a season ago, when they finished the season with a "below expectations" 10-3.

And that pretty much sums up the attitude in Athens these days, where 10 win seasons are now looked at as pedestrian. Mark Richt has created such high expectations that many Georgia fans are waiting for that special season where everything comes together, like it has for Florida and LSU over the past decade, while those same fans worry about the juggernaut that are the Gators. Tim Tebow may be Superman to the rest of the nation (and a super human to the FOX broadcast booth), but he doesn't receive as much scorn or hatred then in Athens, Ga.

But in '09, a 10-win season might be too much to ask for; in fact, getting out of September unscathed would be a major accomplishment. The Dawgs open the season with a trip to Stillwater to play a much improved Oklahoma State team that won nine games in 2008; then they return for an always intense game against SEC East rival South Carolina; hit the road again to face an improving Arkansas squad that might actually have a quarterback to lead the Bobby Petrino aerial attack; and finally close the month at home against Arizona State. Add to those games against Tennessee, LSU, Florida and Auburn and all of a sudden counting up wins seems daunting.

Finally, the Dawgs close the season against rival and ACC heavyweight Georgia Tech, who finally hold a winning streak over their instate rival. Anyone who wants to talk about a lack of SEC scheduling may want to leave the Dawgs out of discussion, and Georgia fans may want to be appreciative of anything close to 10 wins, at least in 2009.

Final 2008 Ranking: 12

2009 CFN Preview | ESPN Georgia Page | CBS Georgia Page

Part of a two-week long look into the 2009 Preseason Southern Fans' College Football Poll. New posts released each day, culminating with the No. 1 team on September 2.

No. 16 BOISE STATE BRONCOS



Consistent Broncos nab spot in preseason poll

Boise State has been about as consistent as almost any BCS team over the past decade. Whether it's over their conference foes or BCS teams, the Broncos have averaged almost 11 wins per season over the past decade. And it's this continued dominance that has earned Boise State the No. 16 spot in the 2009 Southern Fans' College Preseason Poll.

While Boise continues to get the benefit of the doubt amongst voters, the Broncos have yet to reach higher than No. 9 during the poll's two-year existence. This respect probably comes from the amazing numbers the Broncos have generated (over the past decade, BSU is 64-2 at home; holds the nation's highest winning percentage; is the highest scoring team in the nation; and holds the best conference winning percentage), but outside the win over Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, where every break and trick-play went the Broncos way, Boise just hasn't shown up in big games. Last season, trying to cap another undefeated season, Boise State fell to TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl; in 2007, dropped another bowl game to underdog East Carolina to close the season in the Hawaii Bowl; and in 2005, were routed by Georgia to open the season in what was supposed to be a statement game for the Broncos.

So will Boise State be able to climb high in this season's poll? Well, first they'll have to go unbeaten. But the bigger question is the schedule - only the first game of the year (hosting Oregon) - is against a BCS team. Given the lack of big name opponents, especially later in the season, there's little chance for the Broncos to gain the big wins needed to rise high in the rankings. Unless the WAC as a whole has a big season, Boise State's perception in this poll could be doomed even before their opening kickoff.

Final 2008 Ranking: 11

CFN 2009 Preview | ESPN Boise State Page | CBS Boise State Page

Part of a two week long look into the 2009 Preseason Southern Fans' College Football Poll. New releases each day, culminating in the No. 1 team on September 2.