Week 7 Look Ahead

ESPN this week has made it a point to broadcast that Boise will be the No. 1 team in the BCS standings. They (usually) go on to say that Boise has no chance to remain there, but they've made this the headline.

I understand that it's historical for a non-BCS team to be ranked at No. 1 in the BCS at any point, but they should have given more of an explanation as to why BCS is top-ranked. People's hatred of the BCS is a lack of understanding as to how rankings' computation. They see Boise at No. 3 in the AP poll and the Coaches' poll and then are told it's the "Computers" that bring Boise in at No. 1.

Unlike pollsters, who weigh the name-brand of the teams, the "Computers" actually factor in strength of victories, but they only factor in games already played. So Boise is given credit for Va Tech and Oregon State, while not (yet) being penalized for the seven creampuffs that are coming. The combination of the computer rankings are probably more accurate than subjective pollsters, but in the end of the season, their almost always in agreement. And that means, if there are more worthy teams than an undefeated Boise State, then the Broncos will be headed to Pasadena and not Glendale.

On to the Games...

1. A lot more people have confidence in Wisconsin than I do. Ohio State didn't look good int their lone road game at Illinois, but since I drafted Badger RB John Clay, I've been forced to watch a few Badger games, and they haven't been impressive at all.

While I have yet to attend a Wisconsin game (it's getting higher on the list), I've heard that they enjoy themselves mightily in Madison, so the fans are going to be geared up for the night kickoff. I think the game may be close, I don't have faith in Brett "Two-Point Conversion" Bielema to pull out the upset over Tressell or Pryor. I did take the points though.

2.Auburn hits it's roughest patch of the season, with Arkansas, LSU and at Ole Miss in the next three weeks. Two weeks ago, I would've said that the Arkansas game scared me the most, and while I'm still worried about the Hogs, I now am quite worried of the Bayou Bengals and the Hat. It's going to be a tough two weeks and if Auburn can get through them unscathed (and then avoid a letdown against Ole Miss) then the Tigers will really be worthy of the praise they've gotten this week. I'm happy that both games are getting the national CBS treatment, and I'm interested to see the depths of the Gary Danielson-lovefest over Cam Newton.

Dyer needs to step up against Hogs.

But Auburn's going to need more of a team effort to get through these three games. Cam almost single handled beat Kentucky on Commonwealth Stadium's C.M. Newton Field. Auburn's secondary isn't good enough to completely shutdown a passer like Ryan Mallett, and while everyone says the only hope is to get pressure on Mallett (which hasn't happened often this year), the Tigers are just going to have to  limit his effectiveness and match him score-for-score. Auburn seems to have more depth than Arkansas, who has struggled during the second half throughout this season, which is when Auburn has (mostly) been effective.

Last week, I finally took Auburn and gave up the points, and I was burned. But I'm doing it again this week.

3. I thought Alabama was vulnerable to drop a game in Columbia, but I didn't have cojones to pick the Tide after the blowout win of Florida. Now, everyone seems to be anticipating a South Carolina loss in Lexington, and I'm going with the flow again. I think USC is easily the better team, but I'm not going to believe that the Gamecocks have turned the corner and taken control of the East until they prove it. A win in Lexington will make the trip to Gainesville the SEC East championship game.

I took the Wildcats and the points. 

4. Alabama is almost a three-touchdown favorite for their homecoming match with Ole Miss. The Rebels are a different team than they were just a month ago, and they got a week off to prepare, but last week's win by Steve Spurrier didn't just give Nick Saban a loss; it ensured Houston Nutt one as well. Bama doesn't drop two in a row, and I'm giving up the points.

5. I really, really wanted to go out-on-a-limb and say that Texas would up-end Nebraska in Lincoln. But I don't think it can happen. Perhaps if the game were in Austin, the Longhorn fans could rattle Martinez. But I think that the Nebraska offense is too explosive, its defense too dominate, and the Texas offense too predictable.

Certain schools (Alabama comes to mind) take advantage of high exposure games, while others fold (looking at you Va Tech). NU is the former. This is the week that Nebraska finally gets on the national radar and gets people talking about that the Cornhuskers are "back."

Bonus: Boise State haters should tune in to the Oceanic Channel at 11:30 p.m. and grab their Rainbow Warrior pom poms. Nevada heads out to Hawaii for a late kickoff. Any additional strength-of-schedule help will come from the Wolf Pack, who are currently unbeaten and in the top 25. While you'd obviously want Nevada to beat the Broncos, an unbeaten Wolf Pack team will boost Boise's BCS ranking. Line: Nevada -7.

My Poll:

LaMichael James has Oregon No. 1;
is the Heisman far behind?

Oregon took the number one slot in my poll, but it's very fluid at this point. They have been the most impressive throughout the season. Nebraska has my number 2, and even though they don't have the strongest of schedules, there defense has been impressive and their offense, with a freshman QB, has crushed every opponent that was worthy of getting the Cornhuskers' attention. Ohio State, which until this weekend, has played a softer schedule than Boise's to-date, is my No. 3.

Auburn is my number 4, and this isn't a (complete) homer pick. I don't think the Tigers are No. 4, but I do think that Alabama is a top team, and there's no way I can - at this point in the season - put Alabama over Auburn or South Carolina. So Auburn is No. 4, USC No. 5 and Alabama No. 6. This will fluctuate and will probably be different after this weekend with AU hosting Arkansas.

Closing out the top 10 are Oklahoma (yet to prove anything aside from the blowout over a shell-shocked FSU), Utah (who gets the top MWC ranking instead of an over-rated TCU), Bosies State and LSU (who I was shocked to see win in Gainesville).

At No. 11 is Michigan State, who I really like, but I didn't give their U-M win much respect because the Wolverines were over-rated and I expected the Spartans to dominate. My final five were Arkansas (who can make a big jump with a decisive win in Auburn), Stanford (jury is still out on just how good the Cardinal are), Iowa, new-comer Oklahoma State, and Florida State.