The following is a point-by-point analysis of some of the arguments I've been reading recently as to why Oregon is unstoppable and why Auburn is just a lucky, overrated team. I got fed up reading/hearing what I would now call B.S., and decided to look up some stats to see where these two teams actually stand.
(All these stats from the official NCAA record and database:
http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/mainpage.jsp
http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/natlRank.jsp?year=2010&div=IA&site=org)
Well, let's start off with the argument that Oregon has been DOMINATING teams, while Auburn is just SCRAPING by. Wonder Why?
Strength of Schedule Based on Opponents Wins/Losses:
Auburn - #3
Oregon - #142
Alright, so maybe Auburn's played a few better games, but have you SEEN Oregon's Rushing attack? They're miles ahead of Auburn and can't be slowed.
Rushing Yards Per Game:
Oregon - #3 (308.75)
Auburn - #4 (307.67)
Okay, so maybe "miles" is more like 1.08 yards per game, but still, Oregon's offense is so incredible. They are out-gaining everybody.
Total Offense:
Oregon - #1 (572.88)
Auburn - #6 (496.22)
Yeah... see, I told you. Oregon is hands down the best offense in the country.
Yards Per Play:
Oregon - 7.33
Auburn - 7.39
Well, okay, so maybe it's just because of the "system" and the fact that Oregon runs so many plays. (yes, that means Auburn actually gets more yards per play than the "Unstoppable, Unbelievable Quack Attack")
Red Zone Efficiency:
Oregon - 88% (226 pts. inside the 20)
Auburn - 89% (229 pts. inside the 20)
Okay, so Auburn has a good offense. But regardless, we've got to have the most explosive player in the country....have you SEEN LaMichael James? No disrespect to Cam, but James should be right there even in the Heisman race:
Rushing:
LaMichael James (1210 yds. 7.2 ypc 14 TD)
Cameron Newton (1122 yds. 6.7 ypc 14 TD)
HA... see best rusher in the country, albeit a slim margin!
Receiving / Passing:
LaMichael James (5 rec. 119 yds. 1 TD, 0-0 0 yds. 0 TD)
Cameron Newton (1 rec. 20 yds. 1 TD, 108-162 1573 yds. 15 TD)
Well... so what. At least Oregon has the #17 defense. Auburn plays terrible defense:
Scoring Defense (points given per game):
Oregon - #17 (17.88)
Auburn - #59 (24.33)
So Auburn has a "terrible" defense... but did you consider the fact that the average offense they've faced ranked on average 20 spots better than Oregon's opponents' offensive rankings... and yet Auburn only gives up an average of one more touchdown per game.
A better picture of what makes a "good" Oregon defense and a "terrible" Auburn defense... a net difference of 21 yards per game:
Total Defense (yards allowed per game):
Oregon - #35 (337.25 yds. per game, 4.49 yards per play)
Auburn - #57 (358.33 yds. per game, 5.11 yards per play)
Truth is, Auburn and Oregon have almost identical defenses. Bend but don't break mentality...gives up a lot of points simply because they're on the field the whole game due to the offensive style....and tends to come up with key stops in the 4th quarter when it counts.
The point of all this is not to discount the Oregon Ducks, they are a very good football team. But so are the Tigers of Auburn, AL. There is not some "great divide" between these two teams as Messrs. Hebstreit, Jesse Palmer, Craig James, and Finebaum would have you believe. Remember that next time somebody tries to use a "dominant Oregon offense" or a "suspect Auburn defense" to try and make a point about college football and who's a better team.
And one last little fun fact of the day:
Leading Rushers in the State of Alabama:
Cameron Newton (1122 yds)
Michael Dyer (723 yds)
Trent Richardson (606 yds)
Onterio McCalebb (557 yds)
Pat Shed (UAB) (562 yds)
Mark Ingram* (544 yds)
* - Won the 2009 Heisman and was a favorite to repeat in 2010, but currently ranks 5th in his own state in rushing yards, NOT counting the RB for UAB who also ranks ahead of Ingram.
Ha, what a good article Ryan. Actually it was Auburn's defense, in my opinion, that helps them earn my #1 spot. I hate that coaches, journalists, etc, never move the #1 team based on week to week performances. AU's defense has been just as good as Oregons, but it's been good against much better competition. Would you rather play Arkansas, LSU, and Ole Miss, or Washington St, UCLA, and USC in your last 3 games. That's why I've got Auburn at #1, this week at least
ReplyDeleteOne thing you have to remember is the SOS is only an opinion. The fact that many voters are in love with the SEC boost the Auburn SOS. Wait till the season plays out before you start comparing SOS, as many teams that are rated high at the beginning of the season are nowhere to be found at the end. One other thing is you might start worrying about the NCAA sniffing around on Cam's recruitment. Auburn's history of violations and undefeated seasons usually means Auburn is sitting at home on Bowl day.
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