Oregon easily No. 1? Let's take a Look...

By Ryan Hill

The following is a point-by-point analysis of some of the arguments I've been reading recently as to why Oregon is unstoppable and why Auburn is just a lucky, overrated team.  I got fed up reading/hearing what I would now call B.S., and decided to look up some stats to see where these two teams actually stand.

(All these stats from the official NCAA record and database:
http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/mainpage.jsp
http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/natlRank.jsp?year=2010&div=IA&site=org)

Well, let's start off with the argument that Oregon has been DOMINATING teams, while Auburn is just SCRAPING by.  Wonder Why?

Strength of Schedule Based on Opponents Wins/Losses:
Auburn - #3
Oregon - #142

Alright, so maybe Auburn's played a few better games, but have you SEEN Oregon's Rushing attack?  They're miles ahead of Auburn and can't be slowed.

Rushing Yards Per Game:
Oregon - #3 (308.75)
Auburn - #4 (307.67)

Okay, so maybe "miles" is more like 1.08 yards per game, but still, Oregon's offense is so incredible.  They are out-gaining everybody.

Total Offense:
Oregon - #1 (572.88)
Auburn - #6 (496.22)

Yeah... see, I told you.  Oregon is hands down the best offense in the country.

Yards Per Play:
Oregon - 7.33
Auburn - 7.39

Well, okay, so maybe it's just because of the "system" and the fact that Oregon runs so many plays.  (yes, that means Auburn actually gets more yards per play than the "Unstoppable, Unbelievable Quack Attack")

Red Zone Efficiency:
Oregon - 88% (226 pts. inside the 20)
Auburn - 89% (229 pts. inside the 20)

Okay, so Auburn has a good offense.  But regardless, we've got to have the most explosive player in the country....have you SEEN LaMichael James?  No disrespect to Cam, but James should be right there even in the Heisman race:

Rushing:
LaMichael James (1210 yds. 7.2 ypc 14 TD)
Cameron Newton (1122 yds. 6.7 ypc 14 TD)

HA... see best rusher in the country, albeit a slim margin!

Receiving / Passing:
LaMichael James (5 rec. 119 yds. 1 TD,  0-0  0 yds.  0 TD)
Cameron Newton (1 rec. 20 yds. 1 TD, 108-162 1573 yds. 15 TD)

Well... so what.  At least Oregon has the #17 defense.  Auburn plays terrible defense:

Scoring Defense (points given per game):
Oregon - #17 (17.88)
Auburn - #59 (24.33)

So Auburn has a "terrible" defense... but did you consider the fact that the average offense they've faced ranked on average 20 spots better than Oregon's opponents' offensive rankings... and yet Auburn only gives up an average of one more touchdown per game.

A better picture of what makes a "good" Oregon defense and a "terrible" Auburn defense... a net difference of 21 yards per game:

Total Defense (yards allowed per game):
Oregon - #35 (337.25 yds. per game, 4.49 yards per play)
Auburn - #57 (358.33 yds. per game, 5.11 yards per play)

Truth is, Auburn and Oregon have almost identical defenses.  Bend but don't break mentality...gives up a lot of points simply because they're on the field the whole game due to the offensive style....and tends to come up with key stops in the 4th quarter when it counts.

The point of all this is not to discount the Oregon Ducks, they are a very good football team.  But so are the Tigers of Auburn, AL.  There is not some "great divide" between these two teams as Messrs. Hebstreit, Jesse Palmer, Craig James, and Finebaum would have you believe.  Remember that next time somebody tries to use a "dominant Oregon offense" or a "suspect Auburn defense" to try and make a point about college football and who's a better team.

And one last little fun fact of the day:

Leading Rushers in the State of Alabama:
Cameron Newton (1122 yds)
Michael Dyer (723 yds)
Trent Richardson (606 yds)
Onterio McCalebb (557 yds)
Pat Shed (UAB) (562 yds)
Mark Ingram* (544 yds)

* - Won the 2009 Heisman and was a favorite to repeat in 2010, but currently ranks 5th in his own state in rushing yards, NOT counting the RB for UAB who also ranks ahead of Ingram.

My Rant against Boise State

I do not fear Boise State.

I do not think that the Broncos should be excluded from the national title game because of where they're located, their quick ascendancy as a D-1A power, or that they are a non-BCS team.

I just don't think they're that good.

I am not concerned of an unbeaten Bronco team making the national championship game over my Auburn Tigers. If Auburn goes unbeaten (i.e. winning at Miss St, Clemson, South Carolina, at Kentucky, Arkansas, LSU, at Ole Miss, Georgia, at Alabama, and a SEC Championship Game) then the Tigers will be in Glendale no matter what.

And I would welcome the opportunity to play the Broncos, because Boise just isn't that good.

Boise State is not worthy of number one. The Broncos actually should not be in anyone's top five. I don't care what the national media pushes down people's throats, or how much people want to cheer on the little guy. Outside of Va Tech and Oregon State, they play a ten-game schedule of what amounts to a BCS homecoming opponent.

But that doesn't really matter because Boise just isn't that good.

Watching their dismantling of La Tech on Tuesday night (in which I was probably one of the 40,000 people who did - including the half-filled Bronco Stadium), I witnessed the number one rush defense pounded by a below-average Bulldog running game. I saw Boise use its superior speed to overcome turnovers (twice scoring after fumbling the ball). I saw Kellen Moore - the supposed Heisman candidate - hit receivers so wide open that he could have kicked the ball for a completion. I saw their depth wear down the Bulldogs.

And I also saw that Boise is a good team. They play extremely hard. They are very disciplined. They are experienced and know how to win. And they are quite capable of beating almost every team that they could play. But they aren't worthy of a national championship slot.

In big games, Boise has come out highly motivated with the largest of little brother complexes and overwhelmed its opponent in the first half, only to have to claw its way throughout the second. I enjoy the history lessons the national media gives about Boise: beating Oregon, Oklahoma and now Va Tech - three teams that have made headlines by folding like a cheap suit. But I never hear how the Broncos - led by Dan Hawkins and ready to turn the corner - did on their trip to Athens. Oh, a blowout loss? Interesting.

I'll give Boise that they can beat any team. But they don't have the depth to go unbeaten in a BCS conference. After Boise defeated Virginia Tech, what was their next game? Two weeks to prepare for a tough trip to Laramie. Following Oregon State? A trip to lowly New Mexico State.

Alabama suffered it's first loss of the season (at South Carolina) after traveling to Arkansas and hosting Florida in back-to-back-to-back weeks. Auburn just went through a stretch of at Kentucky, Arkansas, and LSU. The reward for beating the highly-ranked Tigers? A trip to Oxford. Boise can play with anybody, but they can't do it over, and over, and over again.

And that's the reason no Boise fan should complain about the BCS, which a sign in Boise described as the Broken Championship System. Because the BCS is the only way they will ever win a national title.

Boise - which every pundit has admitted - can beat anybody in a one-game shot. But a 16-team playoff, that so many people want (and will never happen) would require the Broncos to beat a top ranked team in back-to-back-to-back-to-back weeks. Even under the College Football News playoff proposal (which only has eight teams), Boise would have to beat Missouri, Michigan State and Auburn/Oregon.

But I hope Auburn gets to face Boise in Glendale (if only because that means defeating Georgia and Alabama in the same year for the first time since 2005 and winning the SEC). But after seeing Lennon Creer run for 149 yards and Moore scrambling from the "fierce" Bulldog pass rush, I'd like to see how Boise handles the rushing attack of Cam Newton, Onterio McCallebb and Michael Dyer, and the defensive front four lead by Nick Fairly.

Because, quite frankly, Boise just isn't that good.

In Game Commentary

In summary: GT’s defense is terrible. Not that Clemson’s offense is bad, but Al Groh for some reason can make any offense look good against him. I dont know what is the problem. Clemson beat us on both sides of the ball, especially on defense as their D-line just beat our O-line all game. Plus, our defense couldn’t shut down the run up the middle. Time for CPJ to rehire Wommack, as the 3-4 defense is just terrible. To try and say we will defend the ACC title, yeah, our offense will keep us in games, but our defense is terrible, just terrible. Throw in the fact that our receiver’s can’t catch a lob pass, our defense can’t tackle, and we make stupid mistakes, and you get to the “What is the point” status. We can win any game, but we can also lose any game. I can only see firing Al Groh now at the end of the season. He has yet to show any reason he is better than Wommack last season. Congrats to Clemson on the win.

In Game Commentary

6:15, 11:05 left in 4^th quarter. Finally get a good drive and fail to convert. Defense gets a hold, and we waste a possession with a f-ing terrible FG. Thanks Scott Blair. Normally I wouldn’t blame the kicker, but that was nowhere near the posts. While I took the points, we don’t deserve to win this game. Our defense is that bad, has been all season, and our offense is not clicking.

In Game Commentary

6:05, 14.25 left in 4^th quarter. Ok, Anthony Allen is not Jonathan Dwyer. He can’t, or doesn’t break the middle A/B gap for big yardage. He hasn’t all season, minus the few examples against Middle Tennessee St. He at least can catch, which is more than I can say for Stephen I can’t Catch Hill. Cutting the lead to 11 is huge. Need a Defensive stop, which let’s be honest, I don’t ‘expect. Clemson 24, GT 13.

In Game Commentary

5:42, 3^rd quarter, 5:43 left. GT drives and scores a FG, and that is a loss. I fucking hate Al Groh, it’s official now. 3^rd and long, and Groh brings 3. 3 Friggin people. How can hyou justify that. It’s like bringing a prevent defense on 3^rd down. Then Mario Butler decides to back off on a tackle rather than stop the man from scoring a TD. Why do we even pretend to play defense any more?

In Game Commentary

Halftime: Clemson 17, GT 3. Overall we are getting owned on the defensive line. I’ll be honest, I hate Al Groh right now. His inability to bring pressure on any play from scrimmage is disconcerting. In a 3-4 defense, you still have to bring pressure from other angles. We have gotten pressure, but only when we bring pressure from a corner or a middle LB. Our offense is getting crushed at the point of attack, but CPJ has been hesitant to try and attack the corners. When we have situations of 8 in the box, the corners are prime for attack, and we finally started doing that at the end of the 2^nd quarter. The 2^nd half ought to be fun, but GT has to recover from some terrible plays, and inability to make tackles. Win on defense and we could make a run at the game.