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Tide, Cocks, Gators receive top-marks
by John Buzbee
Ok, six games in, and it's time to start giving out some grades. The rankings come from how I think the teams in the SEC rank (though teams 3-7 can probably just be shaken up and tossed out in any order). The grades come from how the teams have played during the season with a bit of thought to how good they were expected to be in early September.
1. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE --- Mid-season Grade: A+
Review: The team is starting to get acclaim as the best team in the country. There aren't many holes on either side of the ball, and while they haven't played a truly balanced team, they have been tested defensively by separate teams that are great passers and rushers. The win over Virginia Tech is looking especially powerful, as the Hokies are being mentioned as the nation's No. 3 team.
Record-to-date: 6-0vs. Virginia Tech - Won - 34-24
Florida International - Won - 40-14
North Texas - Won - 53-7
Arkansas - Won - 35-7
at Kentucky - Won - 38-20
at Ole Miss - Won - 22-3
Outlook: With the resume they've created, it's difficult not to forcast the Tide in the SEC Championship game. Anything less than a title berth will be a big disappointment for the fans, and possibly the country, with most of the media yearning for a repeat of last season's No. 1 vs. No. 2 Championshp game.
Remaining schedule: South Carolina, Tennessee, BYE, LSU, at Mississippi State, Chattanooga, at Auburn
Toughest / Most Important Game: at Auburn - While the game against LSU will be charged up, with the Tigers still in the hunt for an SEC Title appearance, that game is in Tuscaloosa and the Tide has two weeks to prepare. Bama has to travel to Auburn to end the regular season where those Tigers have shown a bit of offense and two weeks two get ready (though that didn't help last season). Alabama has not won in Auburn since 2001, and Saban is still looking for his first victory in the Loveliest Village. This will be the last real offensive test Bama will have (until the Bowl Game).
Expected Regular Season Record: 12-0 and trip to SEC Championship Game
Expected Bowl: BCS National Championship Game
2. FLORIDA GATORS --- Mid-season Grade: A-
Review: Yeah the Gators have run through their schedule with relative ease, but isn't that what they were suppose to do? In fact, given the returning starters, most people expected for the regular season to be a meaningless chore for Tebow & Co. Close wins over Tennessee and LSU, though dominant, have given much of a 'Wow' factor, and the Gators aren't giving many of ESPNers much need to label them 2009's Team of the Forevers. While the defense has been crushing, the offense has been all-Tebow... wasn't this suppose to be the year where Urban opened it up and let Tebow show that he has an NFL arm?
Record-to-date: 5-0
Charleston Southern - Won - 62-3
Troy - Won - 56-6
Tennessee - Won - 23-13
at Kentucky - Won - 41-7
at LSU - Won - 13-3
Remaining schedule: Arkansas, at Mississippi State, Georgia (Jacksonville), Vanderbilt, at South Carolina, Florida International, Florida State
Toughest / Most Important Game: at South Carolina - Toss in the Tennessee game, and who would have thought that this game would mean more than the Gator's three traditional rivals. Florida will likely already have the SEC East title wrapped up by the time this game is played, and FSU will grab more headlines with both Bowden and Tebow making their exits, but USC is going to have enough offense and a tough defense to force the Gators trouble (in Columbia).
Expected Regular Season Record: 12-0 and trip to SEC Championship Game
Expected Bowl: Sugar Bowl
Outlook: The Gators are going to roll through the rest of their schedule. Arkansas will test the defensive secondary, but that's only if Ryan Mallett can stand up straight, which didn't happen against Alabama. The remainder of the season will amount to comparing and contrasting the Gators and Tide, and while many people are going to start to neglect focusing on the SEC due to the championship being a foregone conclusion, the Gators are going to have at least one (and possibly another) scare along the way. It won't matter. Florida vs. Alabama is about an even bet.
3. LSU TIGERS --- Mid-season Grade: C+
Review: The Tigers edged their way up to No. 4 in the country before the smackdown in Baton Rouge, and don't let the score fool you - what happened on Saturday was a smackdown. LSU's offense is going no where fast, and the team lacks an identity. It seems Les Miles wants to play a bull-rush old Big Ten style of football and just pummel away with Charles Scott, while OC Gary Crowton wants to fling the ball around. Unfortunately for Crowton, Jordan Jefferson can't fling the ball (at least not yet), and teams are left to stack the line.
Record-to-date: 5-1
at Washington - Win - 31-23
Vanderbilt - Win- 23-9
Louisiana - Win - 31-3
at Mississippi State - Win - 30-26
at Georgia - Win - 20-13
Florida - Loss - 13-3
Remaining schedule: BYE, Auburn, Tulane, at Alabama, Louisiana Tech, at Ole Miss, Arkansas
Toughest / Most Important Game: at Alabama - The Tigers could count off the lose to Florida because by winning out in the SEC, LSU will get a rematch (though I can't expect much of a different outcome in Atlanta then what happened on Saturday), but the Tigers have to win in Tuscaloosa. Auburn is going to be a tough match-up for LSU, whose defense has not looked good against spread teams, but the SEC West lead is going to come down to LSU vs. Alabama in the first week of November.
Expected Regular Season Record: 9-3
Expected Bowl: Capital One Bowl
Outlook: LSU should probably be 4-2, but the Tigers are still in the hunt for a SEC title berth. Their offense is on the rocks, but they have two weeks to prepare for Auburn's defense, which tends to make everyone's offense look good. The Tigers are talented enough to roll through the schedule and rematch Florida in Atlanta. But they're also capable of going into the tank (a la 2008) and losing four games. As the team gets further from the days of Saban and more in tune with Miles, the latter becomes a distinct possibility.
4. SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS --- Mid-season Grade: A
Review: The Gamecocks are a last second pass away from taking down rival Georgia and being undefeated, and it's hard not to think that the Cocks are better than the Dawgs today. Kentucky pushed USC to the brink last weekend, but those are the type of games that USC have normally lost in year's past. Now the Cocks have a big chance to make a huge national splash, and regardless of what Steve Spurrier claims (that next week's game against Vanderbilt means more) a win over the Tide on Saturday would give USC at least a shot the SEC East title. I'm honestly not making that up.
Record-to-date: 5-1
at N.C. State - Won - 7-3
at Georgia - Loss - 41-37
Florida Atlantic - Won - 38-16
Ole Miss - Won - 16-10
SC State - Won - 38-14
Kentucky - Won - 28-26
Remaining schedule: at Alabama, Vanderbilt, at Tennessee, at Arkansas, Florida, BYE, Clemson
Toughest / Most Important Game: Clemson - The Cocks will likely be out of the SEC race before the Florida game, so the biggest game on the schedule is ... what's always the biggest game on the schedule. USC has had the better coach and played a team in turmoil for almost the entire decade, yet USC has only won once since 2001. Spurrier needs to break through and begin to dominate Dabo Sweeney as he was dominated by (yet another) Bowden.
Expected Regular Season Record: 8-4
Expected Bowl: Outback Bowl
Outlook: While I was truthful before, I see no shot at USC running the table prior to the Gator's visit in November. Even with a win over the Tide (which is almost ludicrious to ponder), the Gamecocks have Vandy (who they've lost to twice-in-a-row), at Tennessee and at Arkansas. The Gamecocks are sitting at No. 4 in the conference at the mid-way point, but will likely fall back in the bottom third by the beginning of November.
5. ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS --- Mid-season Grade: B+
Review: Bobby Petrino claimed last weekend's game against Auburn was a must-win, and his team came through with a dominating performance. Knowing they were likely in for a shootout, the defense stood up and shut down Auburn in the first half, allowing Ryan Mallett to take his team to a 27-3 halftime lead. Only one team has been able to slow the Arkansas attack, and while there is likely to be a repeat on Saturday, Arkansas is in position to make some noise in the West.
Record-to-date: 3-2
Missouri State - Won - 48-10
Georgia - Loss - 52-41
at Alabama - Loss - 35-7
vs. Texas A&M - Won - 47-19
Auburn - Won - 44-23
Remaining schedule: at Florida, at Ole Miss, Eastern Michigan, South Carolina, Troy, Mississippi State, at LSU
Toughest / Most Important Game: at LSU - The Florida game would do wonders for the program (much like it did for Ole Miss last season), but another win over Les Miles and LSU - this time in Baton Rouge - would go far not only with fans, but also with recruiting.
Expected Regular Season Record: 8-4
Expected Bowl: Chick-fil-A Bowl
Outlook: With that offense, the schedule is favorable for the Razorbacks to make a run in Petrino's sophomore season. However, Arkansas' defense is going to have to do to other teams what they did to Auburn in the first half. While the trip to Gainesville should end similarly to the one in Tuscaloosa, Arkansas has a host in the remainder. The defense has to edge out the Rebels and Tigers offense (both of which appear pedestrian) and will be in shootouts against USC and Mississippi State; but the latter two are in Fayetteville.
6. AUBURN TIGERS --- Mid-season Grade: B+
Review: Auburn's fast start quickly came crashing back to earth in Fayetteville on Saturday. After scoring 37-plus points in the first four games, Auburn hasn't cracked 30 against real SEC competition. The Tiger offense, when on, can hang a bunch on anyone, but the defense is just as likely to allow 40. Due to a lack of experience, depth, and (glaringly) talent, the defenese is not characteristic for Auburn or Gene Chizik.
Record-to-date: 5-1
Louisiana Tech - Won - 37-13
Mississippi State - Won - 49-24
West Virginia - Won - 41-30
Ball State - Won - 54-30
at Tennessee - Won - 26-22
at Arkansas - Loss - 44-23
Remaining schedule: Kentucky, at LSU, Ole Miss, Furman, at Georgia, BYE, Alabama
Toughest / Most Important Game: Alabama - The trips to LSU and Georgia and the home game against Ole Miss will affect where Auburn is headed in the postseason, but all anyone has to know about the Iron Bowl is 36-0. Last year, Alabama didn't just end the Tigers six-game winning streak, they stomped it into the ground. The Tide embarrassed Auburn in Tuscaloosa, and now, as they look toward a national title opportunity, want to do it again in Auburn. Gene Chizik might have won over the Auburn fan base in the first half of the season, but a repeat of 2008 will turn up the criticism to an unbearable level.
Expected Regular Season Record: 9-3
Expected Bowl: Cotton Bowl
Outlook: The defense is a liability, and Auburn coaches don't have much of a solution for it. Now the question comes to whether the offense can continue to score in bunches to outpace the opponent. The biggest fear for Tiger fans is if QB Chris Todd, whose shoulder failed him in 2008, will be able to throw the ball around like he did over the first half of the season. In Fayetteville, he reverted to old from, unable to find open receivers and missing a wide-open first half TD throw - something that hadn't happened early in the season. Still, fans have to be somewhat optimistic, with every game winnable up until the Iron Bowl.
7. TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS --- Mid-season Grade: B
Review: Lane Kiffin finally got his first SEC win with a drumming of Georgia last weekend, and now he's ready to use the win to wage war against UGA in recruiting. While one victory probably won't make UT dominant in the state, it has shown that a victory or two will make the brash Kiffin even more unbearable to li
sten to. Kiffin has decided to live off his daddy's defense and hope that Jonathan Crompton can play above his head. The strategy to use Crompton, even with the game against UGA, has to be a way to recruit a top prospect behind the center.Record-to-date: 3-3
Western Kentucky - Won - 63-7
UCLA - Loss - 19-15
at Florida - Loss - 23-13
Ohio - Won - 34-23
Auburn - Loss - 26-22
Georgia - Won - 45-19
Remaining schedule: BYE, at Alabama, South Carolina, Memphis, at Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, at Kentucky
Toughest / Most Important Game: South Carolina - The Bama game will be huge and move UT to over .500 for the first time since Week 1, but Tennessee doesn't have much of a chance with Jonathan Crompton against Alabama's defense. (Not to mention, if Kiffin plays hide-a-quarterback against the Tide, Saban will eat them alive.) But with the remaining, it's USC that will mean the most. The Vols get Spurrier at home, and Kiffin and Spurrier are sure to send verbal jabs prior to the game. A loss to Spurrier will drop Kiffin to five losses - and erase much of the headway he made last weekend.
Expected Regular Season Record: 6-6
Expected Bowl: Music City Bowl
Outlook: With a week to practice before traveling to Tuscaloosa, many in Knoxville are beginning to let the UGA win cloud their judgment and lead them in thinking that UT has a chance against Alabama. They do not. But things do look a lot better after the UGA win, as the defense is good enough to keep the Vols in all the remaining games.
8. GEORGIA BULLDOGS --- Mid-season Grade: C
Review: So this is what success brings. Mark Richt has only really faced adversity once in his tenure in Athens, during the 2006 season when the team fell to 4-4. But that team was starting a freshman at QB and was able to rebound to win it's final five games and end the season at 9-4 with a win over Virginia Tech in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. But this season, with a senior (first-year) QB, the Dawgs are back at .500 half-way through the season and
UGA fans are ready for a change-of-blood. What really scares fans is this team is a knocked-down pass and blocked FG from being 1-5 (not to mention the Dawgs gave cocky Lane Kiffin his first SEC win).Record-to-date: 3-3
at Oklahoma State - Loss - 24-10
South Carolina - Won - 41-37
at Arkansas - Won - 52-41
Arizona State - Won - 20-17
LSU - Loss - 20-13
at Tennessee - Loss - 45-19
Remaining schedule: at Vanderbilt, BYE, vs. Florida, Tennessee Tech, Auburn, Kentucky, at Georgia Tech
Toughest / Most Important Game: at Georgia Tech - Florida is bigger in fan's hearts and Auburn is bigger for SEC standings, but after 45-42, Dawg fans are ready to re-establish their dominance in the rivalry (UGA has won 14 of the previous 18 games). With the roles apparently flopped and Tech chasing a conference (and perhaps national) title, UGA won't have a problem stepping into a spoiler role.
Expected Regular Season Record: 6-6
Expected Bowl: Liberty Bowl
Outlook: When things look bleak, Richt seems to be able to get his players' best. Not only in 2006, when UGA realed off five straight to close the season and set up their 2007 run, but also when the team needs extra motivation, like the Jacksonville Stomp and Auburn Black-out. UGA gets a break this weekend in Nashville and two weeks to gloat and prepare for the Gators. Don't be surprised when Georgia pushes Florida to the edge. Having Auburn at home isn't a luxury given the series history, but there is enough ability on the team to erase these midseason doubts.
9. OLE MISS REBELS --- Mid-season Grade: D-
Review: After the Rebels were picked by many to challenge for the SEC West (possible national title), people are quickly jumping off their bandwagon. What many forget is that this is about where Ole Miss was last season. But while the records are similar to 2008, the play at QB is not even close. While the defense is allowing only 13 points per game (ninth nationally), Jevan Snead's play has been atrocious, completing only 47 percent of his passes. The Rebels must get more consistent play at QB if they are to get their season back on track.
Record-to-date: 3-2
at Memphis - Won - 45-14
Southeastern Louisiana - Won - 52-6
at South Carolina - Loss - 16-10
at Vanderbilt - Won - 23-7
Alabama - Loss - 22-3
Remaining schedule: UAB, Arkansas, at Auburn, Northern Arizona, Tennessee, LSU, at Mississippi State
Toughest / Most Important Game: LSU - Heading to Auburn on Halloween and hosting Tennessee will both be big on getting Ole Miss back on track, but winning the Magnolia Bowl for the second year in a row. Any wins over the Tigers significantly helps recruiting, and Houston Nutt is ready to create more in-roads from Oxford to Louisiana. A victory would give Ole Miss it's first back-to-back wins in 10 years.
Expected Regular Season Record: 6-6
Expected Bowl: Independence Bowl
Outlook: Ole Miss only has to travel away from Oxford two more times, both winnable games (at Auburn and at Miss. State). But their season really hinges on getting better play at QB, and getting Dexter McCluster more involved with the offense (or else he's going to have to be benched from my fantasy team). Their schedule breaks well enough for Ole Miss to make another run like 2008, but that will all depend on the two week stretch after UAB. Wins over Arkansas and Auburn will set the Rebs up again in the rankings.
10. MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS --- Mid-season Grade: C+
Review: Dan Mullen's first season in Starkville has ended with the same amount of wins and losses as would be expected, but Bulldog fans have to be more excited about the offense put on the field. Outside of the low scoring game in Nashville, MSU hasn't scored less than 24 points in any game, and their offense is currently ranked 44th nationally (after ranking 113th in 2008 and 2007, 103rd in 2006, 113th in 2005, 107th in 2004, 99th in 2003, 93rd in 2002, 85th in 2001, and 46th in 2000). Obviously the loss to Houston was a huge setback in
regards to bowl eligibility, but it's not quite as bad given the teams the Cougars have beaten.Record-to-date: 2-4
Jackson State - Won - 45-7
at Auburn - Loss - 49-24
at Vanderbilt - Won - 15-3
LSU - Loss - 30-26
Georgia Tech - Loss - 42-31
Houston - Loss - 31-24
Remaining schedule: at Middle Tennessee, Florida, at Kentucky, BYE, Alabama, at Arkansas, Ole Miss
Toughest / Most Important Game: Ole Miss - with the likelihood of six wins dwindling, the Egg Bowl will probably be MSU's only bowl for this season, but Mississippi State has enough of an offense to take down the Rebels at home. More importantly, the Bulldogs must make amends for the 45-0 beatdown placed on them by Houston Nutt in his inaugural season; the win was the second biggest for Ole Miss in the series (outmatched by the 48-0 win in 1971).
Expected Regular Season Record: 4-8
Expected Bowl: No Bowl Appearance
Outlook: While the offense has improved drastically with Mullen's schemes, the defense has not been the stellar Bulldog group of years' past. In all of their losses, MSU has given up at least 30 points. MSU travels to Murfreesboro, Tenn. this weekend to face MTSU, who now has Tony Franklin as OC; if Bulldogs remember that name, it's because he lead Auburn's attack for six games last season, and the Bulldogs limited them to just three points. And if MSU is to make a bowl push, they'll have to win on the road, as two of their remaining home games are No. 1 Florida and No. 2 Alabama. Scratch those down as the only two L's MSU can have left.
11. KENTUCKY WILDCATS --- Mid-season Grade: C+
Review: The Cats have been somewhat impressive, losing the games they were suppose to, but fighting throughout. The Florida shallacking was going to happen, especially after the Gators underperformed in the win over Tennessee, and Bama was too good and focused to allow for an upset. Kentucky played hard last weekend in Columbia even after QB Mike Hartline went down for the season, and Rich Brooks has the team confident that they can make it back to a bowl for the fourth straight season, something UK has never accomplished.
Record-to-date: 2-3
Miami (OH) - Won - 42-0
Louisville - Won - 31-27
Florida - Loss 41-7
Alabama - Loss - 38-20
at South Carolina - Loss - 28-26
Remaining schedule: at Auburn, La-Monroe, Mississippi State, Eastern Kentucky, at Vanderbilt, at Georgia, Tennessee
Toughest / Most Important Game: Tennessee - The Wildcats haven't beaten the Vols in, well, forever, and this game will come down to whether UK plays in a bowl game. Kentucky gets the game in Lexington, and UK should have shored up the QB position by then, so the Cats will be in good position for their first win over Tennessee since 1984.
Expected Regular Season Record: 6-6
Expected Bowl: Papajohns.com Bowl
Outlook: Kentucky gets the 11th spot mainly because of the loss of QB Mike Hartline and a lack of available options behind center. Scratch that - they may have too many options, just no clear cut favorite. Whoever gets the nod, they'll get to start off lightly, as UK's next four games are against Auburn (67 in total defense; 49 in pass defense), ULM (74; 113), MSU (71; 78), and Eastern Kentucky.
12. VANDERBILT COMMODORES --- Mid-season Grade: D+
Review: The Commodores have been explosive in two games this season - Western Carolina and Rice. Since then, grrrrrr. No one expected wins over LSU or Ole Miss, but expectations of a repeat postseason trip were dashed with losses to Mississippi State and ... ARMY?!? Now, Vandy returns to it's role of SEC underdog and (hopeful) spoiler.
Record-to-date: 2-4
Western Carolina - Win - 45-0
at LSU - Loss - 23-9
Miss State - Loss - 15-3
at Rice - Win - 36-17
Ole Miss - Loss - 23-7
at Army - Loss - 16-13 (OT)
Remaining schedule: Georgia, at South Carolina, Georgia Tech, at Florida, Kentucky, at Tennessee (As a side note, why doesn't Vandy have to play a game the week before the SEC Championship? There was a big to-do over the Iron Bowl being two weeks prior to the title game, and a rule instituted that all SEC teams must play a game. The 'Dores obviously are granted an exception.)
Toughest / Most Important Game: Tennessee - The Commodores match-up against the Vols will once again replace their bowl game. While the 'Dores could possibly upset someone over their final six games, and they'd most want it to be UT, Tennessee isn't dropping a fourth game in 45 years to their instate "rival."
Expected Regular Season Record: 2-10
Expected Bowl: No Bowl Appearance
Outlook: The Commodores might be able to upset someone - with UGA reeling from back-to-back losses and talk of heads rolling in Athens, while Vandy has been successful against Spurrier for the last two seasons. But the game against the Gamecocks is in Columbia and UGA doesn't go under .500 under Richt. Kentucky looks to be the only chance at a win, and while the game is in Vanderbilt, I think the team has folded by mid-November.
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