The Beginning of Fall (Part III)

State of the SEC. Using the first four weeks performance to attempt to forecast the future seems ludicrous, but I feel like doing it anyway. The SEC West is about to be ruled by Alabama in the same way Florida dominates the East. Ole Miss under Houston Nutt might compete every few years, but team and coach are given for letdowns.

Arkansas is going to be an offensive juggernaut, in the same way Louisville was, but the Razorbacks aren't going to be as fearsome as the Cardinals was, mainly because Petrino has yet to field a team with a formidable defense.

LSU is about to have a Curly Hallman type drop-off under Les Miles. The team will always have talented players, but Miles isn't capable of providing the focus needed for LSU to continually win the West. A contender for team of the 00's, LSU is about to become a middle rung team in the West.

Mississippi State has an innovative coach in Dan Mullen and are going to step up every few years; they'll get more talented players on offense thanks to the exciting schemes, but any success in Starkville will lead Mullen to a bigger coaching opportunity elsewhere... either that, or he'll be fired in three years.

Auburn may actually have a coach and team to compete with Alabama, though a run against the Tide won't be seen as long as Saban's at the Capstone. More impressive than Gus Malzhan's transformation of the the anemic 2008 Tiger offense is Gene Chizik's ability to assemble a top-notch staff. There will be turnover soon within Auburn's coaching ranks and it will speak to Chizik ability to compete with Alabama if he can continue to replenish his staff - not to mention get his share of recruits from the state of Alabama - like Opelika's Corey Grant.
fans I'm ready to believe that there will be a drop-off at Florida, but that Urban won't have his escape route to South Bend, like many people are anticipating. It will be very interesting to see how Meyer handles the Tebow/concussion situation, and whether Brantley sees much playing time. At the very least, Meyer should be getting the back-up reps in real games in order to set the team up for 2010. The fact that he wasn't doing that up 31-7, makes the Tebow injury somewhat enjoyable.

Vanderbilt is back to being Vandy, though I'm still thinking that they are setup perfectly to knock off the Rebs at home. Kentucky's goal of being average in football is paying off; if Rich Brooks can continue to get them to bowl games, he'll be able to retire in Lexington (something that sounds pretty good to me).

Georgia is continuing to prosper under Mark Richt, even though some UGA fans are getting somewhat tired of playing the second fiddle in the East. Georgia has had a decade unlike any other in the past 50 years of their history, yet many are agitated at not having a real shot at the national title, while the rival Gators have won two in the past three years. More so, Richt's loyalty to DC Willie Martinez has some Bulldogs questioning whether Richt puts loyalty to staff over commitment to giving his team a chance to win.

South Carolina is as close as they've been to making a run at the East, but this is the season that they have to do it. The loss in Athens was bad, but they are setting up nicely for a chance to upend Alabama at home. They have a solid defense and enough of an offense to take advantage of a top team playing down, and that could be the Tide in a few weeks following the showdown at Ole Miss. Obviously beating the Tide and Gators is required, but they had better use this season to at least make it to the top two in the East because...

As much as I hate to say it, Tennessee is going to be something under Lane Kiffin and Co. I think that Kiffin is going to be similar to Les Miles and squander the talent that he gets, but they are going to have a very talented team in Knoxville and Monte Kiffin is going to give them a chance to win every week. Tennessee is going to see a resurgence under Kiffin that Georgia saw under Richt. Unfortunately.