Week 4 Recap

We're one-third of the way through the season, and it's funny to start listening to all the talk: Alabama is the best team in the country; Auburn is going to compete for the West; LSU's in trouble; Georgia's fallen off the cliff. It's important to remember that nothing is ever quite as good as it seems, and nothing is ever quite as bad. Except for Alabama - they are the best team in the country.

But a month in, the thing we know for sure is that the perceived SEC strengths in August haven't worked out that way in September. Auburn was supposed to be returning experienced players in the secondary, but is 94th nationally in pass defense. Alabama's front four were suppose to help out the inexperienced secondary, but rank 27th (currently tied with Auburn! and after being 2nd in 2009) and have played teams mainly focused on passing. Georgia's offensive line was suppose to open highway-wide lanes for its speedy backs while giving redshirt frosh QB Aaron Murray enough time to watch The Postman. And Florida was only going to substitute the great Tebow with a better all-around QB. Nothing quite is working out as expected, which is the only thing that actually could have been expected.

My take on the biggest SEC games of last weekend:

1. Alabama 24, Arkansas 20
Though the Alabama-Arkansas game ended as I expected, I was somewhat surprised at just how much the Tide was pushed.  Arkansas was clearly fired up for the No. 1 team in the country, but the second half was more of Arkansas trying not to lose than going for the win. While a lot was made of Mallet's interceptions (especially the forced pick in the end zone, which Greg McElroy was kind enough to return), Arkansas' real issue was the absence of a running game.

The Razorbacks are going to have a great season, and might still be in the SEC West championship chase (though they'll now need a lot of help), but they aren't going to be able to beat a team like Alabama (i.e. a national title contender) without a running game. Alabama stuffed the run in the second half, Arkansas became predictable, and Saban was able to start calling blitzes to tee off on Mallet. And it worked.

Even with the poor QB play on both sides, Alabama won that game more than Arkansas lost it, and it was about as impressive of a win than by any team this season.

2. Auburn 35, South Carolina 27

I'm an Auburn fan, so if you disagree with my assessment, than that's fine. I thought South Carolina had the team to come in to Auburn and win. Part of that was the early season win over UGA (which isn't quite as impressive now) and having two weeks to prepare. But Auburn played about as well as I've seen them since 2007. Defensively, there are still several issues, and one of the perceived strengths coming into the season - the experienced secondary - is giving up yards in bunches.

But Auburn finally controlled the line of scrimmage on both sides and started to look like an actual team that could compete in the SEC West. Now that was the same thing said last season when the Tigers went 5-0 before finishing 7-5.

But the South Carolina game was much different from Clemson. Auburn was much more physical and easily the better team. A lot was made about USC giving up the four turnovers in the fourth quarter, but Auburn fumbled twice in the first half to set up two USC touchdowns. Auburn beat themselves more than USC beat them, but the Tigers are going to have to pull it together in the next two weeks (ULM, at Kentucky) if they want to have a chance to beat Arkansas and LSU in mid-October.

3. Mississippi State 24, Georgia 12

The Auburn game was on at the same time, so I was only able to sparingly watch the UGA game.  Georgia is going to be a much different team with AJ Green back this week. Though I don't know if he'll be enough to right the ship, he's going to draw much more attention than, say, Kris Durham. This is a winnable game for UGA, but, like I've been saying all year, any road game is going to be difficult for the Dawgs.

Not for Richt... well, at least not in 2010

As for this downward spiral that UGA's on, it didn't just start this season and it wasn't all started by Willie Martinez. Certain schools get a core group of players that just seem able to pull out tough wins. Maybe it's 'senior leadership' or maybe it's a veteran QB or maybe it comes from a driven coach. But it's noticeable when it's there, and it's glaring when it's gone.

Alabama is on that type of run right now, where they just believe they're going to pull out the win.  Auburn had that in '04, but even after the 2004 season, the Tigers had a group of veteran players who just knew to win in certain spots. This carried over into 2005, 2006 and even 2007, with the Tigers winning big games each season, but you could also see that it  wearing off. In '07, while the Tigers edged Florida and Alabama, they were lucky to beat Kansas State and lost close games to MSU, South Florida and LSU. Then the wheels came off in 2008.

And that's where UGA is now. They built up a core group of players each year from the 2002 team on, but that belief in winning has eroded. And looking back, it could be seen coming on last year.  In 2009, UGA had a team that was used to winning close games, and that came through in hard fought wins over USC, Arkansas, Arizona St, Auburn and Georgia Tech. They won each game, but last season's record could have been much worse for the Dawgs.

Now you hear sensible UGA fans clamoring for Richt's ouster, which is premature. I think that Aaron Murray is going to be much better in Year 2 and will even win some games later this season (again, he's going
to be a different QB at home). These coaches didn't get dumb overnight, and these were the same guys who built a championship caliber team in 2007. If you want to say that Richt's lost his edge, then that's fine. But realize that Richt, no matter the record, won't be gone this season.

4. LSU 20, West Virginia 14

As great as LSU's defense, special teams, WRs and RBs are, they aren't going to continue to win without some passing game. I haven't seen a winning team so devoid of a passing game since my PS2 NCAA '04 Auburn team, where I just ran Ronnie and Cadillac all game (they both had to be in the Heisman race!).

But I'm not sure Les Miles knows what to do. Between Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee, Jefferson is the better athlete, but they're getting no production from him. Now he's trying to switch Lee in, but that's not helping either get a rhythm.
The only thing they know for sure is Miles better figure out something this week against a pedestrian Tennessee team because a trip to Gainesville is awaiting the Tigers.

5. My top 16 and Explanation
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide
No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes
No. 3 Oregon Ducks
No. 4 Nebraska Cornhuskers
No. 5 Stanford Cardinal
No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners
No. 7 Florida Gators
No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers
No. 9 Boise State Broncos
No. 10 TCU Horned Frogs
No. 11 Arizona Wildcats
No. 12 LSU Tigers
No. 13 Arkansas Razorbacks
No. 14 Iowa Hawkeyes
No. 15 Auburn Tigers
No. 16 South Carolina Gamecocks

Alabama remains the No. 1 team in my poll, but I'm starting to look hard at Ohio State at No. 2, who really doesn't play a difficult schedule (and I'm already penalizing Boise for that). I really like both Oregon and Stanford,  so there's a good chance that team might take over my No. 2 spot (and possibly No. 1 depending on how Bama-UF turns out).

Oklahoma has played one complete game, and if they want to stay high, they need to put it together against Texas, who is not playing well at all. My thought going into the Red River Shootout is that OU has the capability of being a dominant team, while Texas may just be a good one.

I'm completely undecided on Florida. They finally showed signs of life on offense, but they'll need to play extremely well to win in Tuscaloosa. I don't see that happening. I've liked Wisconsin all year, but they're going to face their first real test in East Lansing on Saturday.

Arizona has shot into my poll at No. 11, and that's probably a tad high, as is LSU at No. 12. Arkansas falls three spots to 13, and they probably deserve to be higher after hanging tough with Bama. I still like Iowa and that loss in Tucson was probably an aberration. And I think South Carolina remains a threat in the East.